The Quiet Rise of Noncommunicable Diseases
For decades, public-health discussions in Nigeria have been dominated by diseases that are immediately recognisable as emergencies. Malaria, tuberculosis, HIV, cholera and other infectious diseases have understandably occupied much of our attention, alongside the continuing challenge of maternal and newborn mortality. These remain important priorities, but another health burden is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. According to reports by Daily Trust, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and cancers, are already responsible for a substantial proportion of deaths in Nigeria, yet they rarely receive the same sense of urgency as infectious disease outbreaks.
According to the World Health Organization’s 2025 Noncommunicable Diseases Progress Monitor, NCDs accounted for an estimated 28 per cent of all deaths in Nigeria in 2021, equivalent to approximately 467,800 deaths. The estimated probability of dying prematurely, between the ages of 30 and 70, from one of the four major NCD groups was 18 per cent.
The Challenges of Early Detection
What makes this challenge particularly difficult is that NCDs rarely announce themselves in the way infectious outbreaks do. Hypertension can exist for years without obvious symptoms, diabetes may remain undiagnosed until complications develop, and cardiovascular disease may first become apparent when someone suffers a stroke or heart attack. Cancer, too, may only come to medical attention when a patient presents with advanced disease, narrowing opportunities for prevention and less costly treatment.
Hypertension illustrates the gap between disease burden and public-health response. A systematic analysis published in 2021 estimated that approximately 27.5 million Nigerians aged 20 and above were living with hypertension in 2020, with an age-adjusted prevalence of 32.5 per cent. Yet only about 29 per cent were aware of their condition, 12 per cent were receiving treatment and just 2.8 per cent had their blood pressure controlled to target. More recent research, published in 2026, estimated pooled hypertension prevalence at 34.2 per cent across 32 studies involving almost 50,000 Nigerian adults.
Diabetes, Cancer, and Environmental Factors
Diabetes presents a similar challenge. A 2024 systematic review and meta-analysis covering 60 studies and 124,876 participants estimated the pooled prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Nigeria at 7 per cent. Physical inactivity, urban residence, elevated body mass index, abdominal obesity and infrequent vegetable consumption were identified among the contributing factors.
Meanwhile, cancer figures from the International Agency for Research on Cancer’s GLOBOCAN 2022 estimates recorded 127,763 new cancer cases and 79,542 cancer deaths in Nigeria that year, with breast, prostate and cervical cancers leading the numbers.
Experts note that these challenges expose the limitations of reducing prevention purely to individual responsibility. Environmental factors, food availability, safe spaces for exercise, and access to affordable screening and medicines in primary healthcare settings play a critical role.
Bridging the Implementation Gap
Nigeria developed a National Multisectoral Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases for 2019–2025, recognising that factors driving NCDs extend beyond the health sector. However, a 2025 policy brief from the African Health Observatory Platform identified weaknesses in implementation, including inadequate guidance for putting the multi-sectoral approach into practice at the primary healthcare level.
Addressing this requires integrating routine blood-pressure checks, diabetes screening, cardiovascular-risk assessment, and cancer prevention directly into primary healthcare services, ensuring patients have continuous access to treatment and monitoring. Doing so not only saves lives during people’s economically productive years but also protects families and the broader economy from devastating financial costs.